The Quick Comparison: Danny Amendola vs. Wes Welker

First Three Seasons (of at least 10 starts):

Player A:

48 games: 208 receptions, 2296 yards, 9 touchdowns, 11.04 yards per reception, 47.8 yards a game

Player B:

41 games, 191 receptions, 1681 yards, 7 touchdowns, 8.8 yards per reception, 41.0 yards a game

As some of you may have guessed, Player A is Wes Welker and Player B is Danny Amendola. While Amendola is slightly larger (5-9 vs. 5-11) and is viewed as a more athletic Welker, Wes has been an ironman for the Patriots since he joined the team in 2007, missing only 3 games during his 6 seasons with the Patriots.  Amendola is a larger injury risk, having missed 22 games over his first 4 seasons in the NFL.  Additionally, while Sam Bradford isn’t the dream quarterback for any wide receiver, he is much better than both Gus Frerotte and Joey Harrington (the two leading Dolphins quarterbacks during Welker’s time in Miami). Welker went from averaging 35.03 yards a game to 73.43 yards a game after joining the Patriots. Welker’s per game production more than doubled despite adjusting to his new system. Also, Wes Welker was more capable at breaking off big plays because of his elusiveness and speed, giving him the advantage on catches of 20+ and 40+ yards (25 and 3 respectively compared to 8 and 2). Finally, while Amendola’s size may seem like an advantage when going for a first down, Welker was actually more effective when going for the first (118 to 93).

What worries me most about Amendola is his inability to produce as the leading receiver on a team. As the #1 in St. Louis, he was targeted 101 times while making only 63 catches (Welker had 67 catches with 99 targets in his final year with the Dolphins). In addition, Amendola also displayed stagnant production in the second half, especially lacking the big play potential that the Rams desperately needed when they were down:

Amendola (2012):

1^st  half: 352 yards on 33 catches (10.66 yards per reception)

2^nd half: 299 on 28 (10.69)

64% of his receptions became first down in the second half

1 play of 40+ yards in the fourth quarter

Welker (2006):

357 yards on 33 catches (10.81 yards per reception)

330 yards on 34 catches (9.7) (including 24 catches in the 4^th quarter)

53% of his receptions became first downs in the second half

4 plays of 20+ yards in the 4^th quarter

Overall, while I’m am hopeful that Amendola can fulfill his potential as a bigger slot receiver for the Patriots, my expectations are lower than Welker’s seasonal stats. I would’ve, like most Patriots fans, preferred to see the Brady-to-Welker connection again this season based on the 5 seasons of 100+ catches and the clear chemistry between the two players, but I have to believe that Danny Amendola, if healthy, will be able to come close to Welker’s productions, give or take 20 catches and 300 yards.