Trying to Make Sense of the Slumping Sox

Can Pedroia rebound?

As a brief warning, this post is centered around more advanced sabermetrics, so proceed with caution if you have arithmophobia. 

As most of us have noticed, the Red Sox have had a rocky start to the season and are currently in the middle of the pack in the AL and trying to keep up with the other teams in the AL East that are starting to heat up.

Here are a few stats to start off slow (Analysis will be further below):

ISO Down from .175 to .138 over the past year (Mar/April comparison). Middle of the pack at 15th right now, 6th at this time last year. Went from Above average to below. ISO is isolated power that translates into extra base hits:

ISO = ((2B) + (2*3B) + (3*HR)) / AB
ISO = Extra Bases / At-Bats 

Surprisingly, we struck out on 23.3% of our at bats last season which was 4th highest in the MLB for April. We are 15th right now with 21.3%.

One consistency is the plate discipline. We walk on 10.2% of our at bats, which is up from last year’s rate of 9.8%.

BABIP: We are currently down from .339 in 2013 to .300 in 2014. .300 is average, while .339 is quite high. Usually BABIP is because of luck, poor defense, or pitching adjustments. 

Now the UZR/150, which is used to more evenly judge and compare defensive efficiency (-.4 in 2013, -.7 in 2014) proves that defense has been slightly worse this season in the AL than last season. Also, we have to take into account the fact that the -.4 is calculated using the entire season while -.7 is just in the first month. This is important because the UZR/150 will settle as the batters tire down and the pitchers find their grooves. -.7 seems low and would be for an entire season, meaning a below average defensive season for the AL, but eventually hitter regression will cause a spike in that which would effect the BABIP of the Red Sox.

Other stats:

AVG down from .271 to .246 (.249 in 2014) (.251 - 2013)

OBP down from .347 to .333 (.317 in 2014) (.318 - 2013)

SLG down from .446 to .384 (.389 in 2014) (.401 - 2013)

wOBA down from .346 to .321 (.314 in 2014) (.316 - 2013)

and finally

wRC+ down from 115 to 98 (96 in 2014) (98 - 2013)

Takeaways:

We were overachieving in 2013. We knew this but our season thus far just proves it. We have regressed to the mean. Our AVG and SLG are below league average for this year, while OBP, wOBP, and wRC+ are slightly above the league average.

We were able to create runs extremely easily last year. wRC+ takes the 100 runs at league average and takes the additional number as the growth in percentage form. For example: the 115 wRC+ for the Sox last March/April means that they were 15% higher than the league average for run creation efficiency. Run Creation is vital to baseball because it takes into account each stat in a player’s stat line and weighs them to determine their efficiency compared to other players to provide a more fair evaluation.

The main contributor to our struggles:

No not the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury, but Dustin Pedroia. Dustin is down in almost every category:

Stat: 2013 2014

BB% 16.2% 7.5%

K% 13.7% 9.2%

BABIP .402 .300

AVG .337 .270

OBP .444 .325

SLG .398 .351

wOBA .377 .305

wRC+ 136 87

Analysis: 

3 keys stat differentials are walk percentage, BABIP, and wRC+. BB% is important because the drop shows lack of plate discipline which is intriguing because his K% is lower which means he is either swinging earlier in the count and struggling to scrap out at bats. If he isn’t walking or striking out at much, that must mean that he is settling for worse pitches which leads to his lower average and OBP. His lower BABIP is important because it means he was getting lucky last year. By comparison, Pedroia had a BABIP of .330 for March/April in 2008, which (as we all know) is when he won AL MVP. The incredible .402 BABIP was second only to Starling Marte (.418!) in the MLB (minimum 110 plate appearances). MLB average for BABIP was .298 for March/April. Pedroia’s BABIP of .300 was also his lowest since 2011. Finally, wRC+ is down from 136 to 87, which means that Pedroia has gone from being 36% more efficient at run creation than the rest of the league to start the season last year to now 13% less effective that the rest of the league this year. That steep of a drop is worrisome considering that it is the lowest wRC+ of his career for the first month of the season. I have faith that he can turn his poor start around because of his track record as one of the game's elite second basemen, but he'll need to do it soon if he hopes to keep the Sox in playoff contention.

Quick Hits: 

All of the following stats compare Pedroia to the other 10 AL second basemen with at least 100 plate appearances. Tied for last with Omar Infante with 0.2 BsR which measures effective base running. 2nd worse wRC+ (Marcus Semien has 78). 2nd lowest wOBA (Semien with .291). Lowest SLG (2nd lowest Semien with .367). 3rd lowest OBP (Kinsler 2nd, Semien worst). Interestingly, lowest ISO with .081 (Robinson Cano is 2nd with .082. Brian Dozier leads with .227!). Only Jose Altuve and Ian Kinsler walk at a lower percentage than Pedroia (7.1% and 4.8%, respectively). Dustin is the only 2nd baseman with at least 100 PA without a homerun (UPDATE: Dustin had his first homer, a grand slam Friday 5/3).

The One Bracket to Rule Them All

The time is now upon us and I’m sorry, Johnny Marks, but I’m pretty sure that Bracketology season is the best time of the year.  Whether it is for an office pool, for fooling around with friends, or just as a way to fuel your own competitive drive, I’m guessing you are reading this to try and ease your thoughts about the unbelievably tough choices fans are forced to make this year. I have to admit, this year is remarkably difficult for any fan, even myself, with a relatively even field of competitors. I hope that you don’t take the title of this post too seriously, especially after you see my final matchup, but that you use it as a guide to weigh your options. Without further ado, here are my picks:

Final Four:

Florida:

I see Florida being tested early by Pitt and then UCLA in rounds 3 and 4 before a matchup with Jim Boeheim and the Orange. People easily forget that the Pitt Panthers lost to Cincinnati by 1, Syracuse by a combined 7 points, and UVA by 3 points twice.  Lamar Patterson and Talib Zanna will wear down Florida with their physical play, but Florida will be able to sneak by. UCLA is a team that is also very often overlooked despite the fact that they just beat current 1-seed Arizona and have 7 ESPN Top 100 recruits on their roster. UCLA is very talented and are just finding their groove, but I don’t see them getting past this veteran Florida team. I think UCLA has the best chance to knock off Florida from the South though, because they are a stronger team from the free throw line and have more talented players. I think that the Gators will face Syracuse in the Elite Eight but I don’t see them as a tough matchup. ‘Cuse is currently spiraling down with only 2 wins in their last seven games and I see them struggling against a underrated Western Michigan team before just barely sneaking past Ohio State and a battered Kansas team. I think that if Embiid shows that he can fight through the back pain, then Kansas could beat Syracuse and then Florida to return to the Final Four, but I don’t see Embiid coming back even close to 100%.

Iowa State:

I love this team. Pop quiz: which team leads the NCAA in assists per game? Which team is 6^th in points per game? Which team just beat Texas, Ok St, Kansas State, Kansas, and Baylor? That would be Iowa State. Iowa State is also led by 2 seniors that put up over 17 points a game and are 23^rd in the nation in rebounding. Size is key. Providence should be a fairly easy win, same with Villanova (who are incredibly overrated). The real test is UVA and I think the seniors power them through.

Arizona:

Another team I like a lot. Aaron Gordon is a man on a mission… If he can make his free throws. Gordon is a special talent that dominated when I was able to see him last year at the Hoops Hall Classic in Springfield. If he can improve his free throw percentage, I think he could emerge as a Blake Griffin-type force during the final stretch. Nick Johnson is one of those special players that I think will be nearly unstoppable during this tournament. The Wildcats have size and work well together, with multiple people that can take pressure off of Johnson later on in a game. Arizona is even more stacked with talented players than UCLA and they know how to play well together. The loss to UCLA makes me wonder if they will be discouraged at the beginning of the tournament, but I have to believe they will use it as fuel. When you shoot 37.5% from the free throw line it is nearly impossible to win. I think if Arizona can get past Oklahoma State (with all the momentum they have now that Marcus Smart is back) in the third round, Arizona can get past San Diego State and Wisconsin to make it back to the Final Four.

Louisville:

Last but not least, Rick Pitino’s squad grabs the last spot. THEY ARE A FOUR SEED! I was amazed when I first saw that on my TV. I think they use that insulting placement to their advantage and angrily force themselves back to the Final Four. People forget that they won the whole thing last year. They rebound, they score, and they are unselfish (with Russdiculous being the only exception). I see Louisville getting tested by NC State, Wichita State, and Michigan before emerging from the Midwest. Wichita State could beat them, obviously, because they have the most veteran leadership and are well coached, but I don’t see them upsetting the reigning champs. Michigan has enough size to sneak past Duke (which will lead Parker to return for a sophomore season), but I don’t see them knocking off a more experienced and tighter knit team in Louisville.

My Championship picks will be posted tomorrow so stay tuned…

The Day My World Stood Still

This is how I felt when the news came in

Don’t worry, guys, at least we have A.J. Pierzynski…

I’m still in shock.

I mean how could he do this to us? Jacoby Ellsbury managed to break my baseball heart in a way I didn’t think anyone could after Johnny Damon. I thought Ellsbury enjoyed being the quiet, good-looking star that my mom loved among the bad beards? He was fast and agile on the field and the base paths, but I never thought I’d see him steal away to the Yankees without at least a strong pickoff attempt by the Red Sox.

In a day filled with many different trades and free agent deals, Ellsbury managed to steal the headlines and the dreams of the Fenway Faithful. Now I would not have given Ellsbury the $153 million deal that he got from the Yankees, but that is the only silver lining that I can see with the Yankees’ signing as a Red Sox fan. Ellsbury is fairly comparable to Damon statistically for the year before each left, with Bases Stolen being the exception. Here is the comparison:

Yr	Age	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
05	31	117	197	35	6	10	75	18	.316	.366	.439	.805
13	29	92	172	31	8	9	53	52	.298	.355	.426	.781

Ellsbury on the DL will be a common story for seasons to come and I hope he performs like Cano did while the Yankees still struggle to make the playoffs. There was very little need for the Yankees to sign Ellsbury because they already had Brett Gardner, but if they want to over spend for a player who is too often injured (fitting in perfectly with the current Yankees roster) then I am glad they got what they wanted.

I decided to examine Brett Gardner’s stats, who Ellsbury will replace in Center Field:

Yr	Age	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
13	29	81	147	33	10	8	52	24	.273	.344	.416	.759

The biggest difference between Gardner and Ellsbury? 19 million dollars next year. Ellsbury will make $21.85 million next year while Gardner will make $2.85 million.  That is a huge difference for similar production.

Surprisingly, Ellsbury’s contract is larger than Carl Crawford’s, leading me to be very skeptical of his production over the next couple of years. Here are Crawford’s stats (his deal was seven years and $142 million):

Yr	Age	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
10	28	110	184	30	13	19	90	47	.307	.356	.495	.851

Crawford’s numbers were much better than Ellsbury’s and I have to think that the New York Market will impact Jacoby’s stats more than Boston’s market impacted Crawford’s. Sure, Crawford was a mega deal, but he was grouped with Adrian Gonzales’ huge deal and was in a better place to handle the pressure. Ellsbury is heading to the Yankees, who are coming off their worst season in 20 years and are not getting much better or younger.

I must also add that this continues my streak of getting t-shirts of players that have then left the Red Sox: Jason Bay, Adrian Beltre, Carl Crawford, and now Jacoby. As a gift for the World Series win, I hadn't even gotten a chance to wear it.

But, after all that Ben Cherrington has done for us, I still have faith that we have a plan for the days after Ellsbury. Stay strong, Sox fans, better days are ahead.

In Ben we trust…

Quick Hits:

1)   Red Sox decided not to tender the contracts of Andrew Bailey and Ryan Kalish: I don’t like this. I feel like we could hang on to Kalish, especially because we just lost Ellsbury, and he could reach his potential if he could just get healthy (reminds me of another former Red Sox Outfielder). As for Bailey, I understand letting him go because of the salary, but I’m disgruntled because of the fact we traded Josh Reddick (who I liked… a lot) for Bailey two years ago. Bailey hasn’t done anything for us and Reddick has been decently consistent for the A’s.

2)  Red Sox sign Pierzynski for 1 year $8.25 million: I’m fairly indifferent on this addition. We got a pretty good 1 year rental for a decent deal, which opens up the doors for prospects Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart for the next couple of years, but I can’t help but worry about the impact of letting go of Saltalamacchia. I would rather have given Salty a 3-year deal while the two prospects mature and then trade him away when we feel they are ready to play. Salty has already established himself as a reliable contributor for the team and is well liked by his pitchers, which makes it difficult to let him go. Salty signed with the Marlins for 3 years and $21 million. I’m also a little sad to see his name on a different jersey.

3) Rays trade for Ryan Hanigan and Heath Bell: I actually really like this deal for the Rays. Hanigan isn’t anything special, but you get him for very little. You pick up Heath Bell as well, who can become your closer and you give up a pitching prospect (the Rays have plenty) and a player to be named later. The Diamondbacks made out well, too. They gave up the $5.5 million attached to Heath Bell because of his contract along with a decent pitching prospect for a better pitching prospect and a key player/prospect that will be determined later.