Draft Evaluation: Kelly Olynyk

Adam Morrison vs. Kelly Olynyk

Stats on the Surface:

Morrison: SF 6'8" 205 pounds

'03 - '04 (Freshman Year):   20.6 Minutes  53% fg    30% 3-pointers    73% ft     4.3 rb   1.4 as   .3 blocks   .4 steals   11.4 points

'04 - '05 (Sophomore Year): 34.2 minutes  50% fg    31% 3-pointers    76% ft     5.5 rb   2.8 as   .5 blocks   .6 steals   19.0 points

Olynyk: PF/C 7 ft 238 pounds

'10 - '11 (Freshman Year):   13.5 minutes  57% fg    44% 3-pointers     62% ft    3.8 rb     .7 as   .1 blocks   .3 steals     5.8 points

'12 - '13 (Sophomore Year): 26.4 minutes  63% fg    30% 3-pointers     78% ft    7.3 rb   1.7 as 1.1 blocks   .3 steals   17.8 points

The Basics:

    Morrison was more reliable, playing more minutes. Olynyk has a better build, allowing him to play as a big forward, but as a center, as he is listed on most teams' big boards, he will not be able to bruise around as well. Morrison's second year was better all around besides Olynyk's contributions through rebounds and blocks, which are slight. With all of these stats being considered, Morrison played one more year than Olynyk, attempting to polish his skills. He successfully did so and played 36.5 minutes a game, shooting .498/.437/.775. He rose his point average from 19 to 28.4 and his steal average by 0.5 per game. Morrison not only led the NCAA in scoring during his final college (one full point more than J.J. Redick) but he also had the largest scoring spike out of anyone featured in the top 50 scorers in the NCAA during both the 2004-2005 season and the 2005-2006 season.

The Good:

  Great character. He was highly respected at Gonzaga and helped lead them this year to their first #1 ranking in school history during week 18. He is a very likable player, the type that could gain a huge fan base in Boston, similar to Brian Scalabrine. He is also willing to work, which seems simple to say but is a trait uncommon out of this year's prospects. He will have a lot of court time this year after the Brooklyn trade, and that should go a long way to improving his post game, which Gonzaga Coach, Mark Few, called his biggest weakness:  "You have this 7-foot guy who wanted to hang out on the perimeter." Olynyk worked mostly through pick-and-roll situations at Gonzaga because of his mobility, so he should work well with Rondo and Avery Bradley, taking on the high picks that used to be set by Garnett. Because of his mobility, Olynyk will be able to break off the pick and go to the basket rather than curl out off the pick for a 15-foot jumper (as KG used to do). Surprisingly, Olynyk also had the highest points-per-possession out of all prospects, at 1.13.

    Kelly Olynyk had never played center, let alone forward before coming to America (he was 6-3 when he came to America), so he has room to improve, but he's a good ball handler and crisp passer because of his background as a guard: "All I'd ever done really my whole life was play guard," Olynyk said. "They wanted me to do something I'd never done before, so that was really hard — especially at a high level. Physically, I had never lifted weights before I came here." He has a pretty smooth jumper, but needs to work in the post more (like Dirk Nowitzki) in order to truly reach his potential.

Why I'm worried:

  Played in 161 games in 246 total games in the three seasons he was in the league. He averaged 7.5 points per games over his career along with 2.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.1 blocks, and 0.2 steals. His shooting percentages dropped drastically to .373/.331/.710, that is a drop of .125/.106/.065, respectively. Morrison played almost as many minutes in his junior season as Olynyk did in his whole college career (1316 minutes for Olynyk to Morrison's 1205). Because of Olynyk's small playing sample size and his lack of college experience, along with his lack of competition from other tough NCAA teams compared to other prospects, I am worried that his transition to playing NBA style basketball will be harder than most of the other prospects. Had this pick been in the late first round or early second round, I would be less worried, but for a team desperately searching for talent to rebuild around, Olynyk seems like more of a Raef LaFrentz than a Dirk Nowitzki, and an Adam Morrison than even a Nikola Vucevic (a 2011 first round pick who is only 2 pounds bigger than Olynyk and went 3 picks lower, which is ironically where the Celtic's original pick was).  Olynyk is also 22 years old, tying with Solomon Hill, Nemanja Nedovic, and Reggie Bullock as the second oldest draft picks in the first round (Gorgui Dieng and Mason Plumlee tied for first at 23 years old). I would've preferred a younger prospect who has time to mold.

The Conclusion:

  Overall, this wouldn't have been bad if Kevin Garnett were still with the Celtics as well, because he could learn like Greg Stiemsma did, but with news of the Brooklyn Nets trade, Olynyk will have to learn through playing and has a chance to lose potential through lack of direction from a veteran leader. I don't doubt Danny Ainge often, and I can't completely bash this decision because I trust him enough to have a plan in place, but this is the most questionable move (besides the Brooklyn trade, obviously) since the Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson for Jeff Green trade. We better hope for a chance at the Andrew Wiggins sweepstakes next year, because otherwise things are looking bleak for the next couple of years for the Celtics.

Here is a Highlight Video Displaying Kelly Olynyk's Strengths: